Gameweek 33 FPL Tips

Apr 12, 2024 | Gameweek Tips

Gameweek 33 is a… complicated gameweek.

It’s like soup, actually. It’s the week right before a double gameweek, so you may be tempted to go gung-ho and set your team up for future gameweeks. This is the broth of your soup—the fun part, the main character.

But a fair few teams—like Liverpool, Arsenal, and City—have short turnarounds between games, so rotation is possible. This is like the three servings of chilli powder your unknowing sibling has thrown into your soup.

A total mess.

But I can fix your soup for you. And so can the free LazyFPL newsletter. It’s the easiest way to win more by doing less, after all, as you’ll get all the relevant FPL information straight to your inbox each gameweek to help you fix that mess of a soup (get a green arrow).

Blank and Double Gameweeks

Gameweek 34 is a confirmed blank and double gameweek: 

  • Arsenal: Wolves (A) + Chelsea (H)
  • Bournemouth: Villa (A) + Wolves (A)
  • Crystal Palace: West Ham (H) + Newcastle (H)
  • Everton: Forest (H) + Liverpool (H)
  • Liverpool: Fulham (A) + Everton (A)
  • Sheffield United: Burnley (H) + Manchester United (A)
  • Wolves: Arsenal (H) + Bournemouth (A)
  • Spurs: Blank

And Gameweek 35 is now a double gameweek:

  • Chelsea: Aston Villa (A) + Spurs (H)
  • Spurs: Arsenal (H) + Chelsea (A)

In other words, it’s just another chance for every single Chelsea player (not named Cole Palmer, that is) to get our hopes up, before they crash back down again.

And lastly, all my picks are covering GW’s 33 and 34, with another section listing out players to buy for all of you on an early WC + BB 37 strategy. 

Who to Buy in FPL Gameweek 33?

The pick of the defenders remains the same as they have been for a few weeks now:

  • Gabriel
  • Saliba
  • van Dijk 

But, of course, I have a couple of alternatives for you:

Andrew Robertson

I can only think of two famous Scottish things: the Loch Ness Monster and Andrew Robertson.

But does the wee little Loch Ness Monster have an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.33 and fixtures of CRY, eve+ful?

I think Robertson’s a good option if you’re willing to take on some risk.

I prefer van Dijk for his minutes security, but hey, if upside is what you’re looking for, put on those kilts, develop a thick accent, and enjoy Liverpool’s set-piece taker over three weeks with some extremely good clean sheet odds.

Sergio Reguilón

Alright, alright, I’ll turn myself in. Am I really suggesting a single gameweek player before a double gameweek?!

Yes. Especially when this player has fixtures of SHU and lut while maintaining great attacking data—an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.37—and often playing as a left-winger in possession.

Sheffield United and Luton Town are ranked 20th and 17th for xG, respectively, while Brentford are mid-table for xGA, meaning clean sheets are quite possible.

Meaning, a lot of points are on offer.

Reuniting with Reguilon after his GW 29 shenanigans (I apologise for any PTSD from his -3 pointer) is like meeting your ex for the first time after a breakup. 

Should you give them another chance? It’s a difficult decision.

Well, until Mark Flekken decides to become incompetent and lets in a 0.01xG goal, at least.

Midfielders

Salah and Saka remain the best picks, and as mentioned last week, Ødegaard and Luis Díaz follow close behind.

I also really like Eze, but since he plays vs. Liverpool (A) this week, I’d prefer getting him next week instead.

And, just as he was last week, Bruno Fernandes is still a good option.

Kai Havertz

Do you hear that? No, it’s not your car alarm going off at the smallest gust of wind, it’s Chelsea fans ruing what could’ve been with Kai Havertz.

Okay, this pick has to be caveated with an xMins warning. If you think he starts the next three, he’s a great option.

He often plays as Arsenal’s CF or a Ramdeuter when he plays as the LCM (meaning he’s quite advanced) and has an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.48. 

And his fixtures include AVL, wol+CHE. Of course, he does play Bayern Munich between the Villa and Wolves games, which isn’t ideal in terms of rest.

I prefer Saka and Gabriel plus either of Ødegaard and Saliba, but if you want a good, free risk option, Kai is there for the taking.

Pablo Sarabia

Sarabia’s value slightly diminishes as time goes on, but for the next two gameweeks he has fixtures of nfo, BOU+ARS, while being nailed on at just £4.7m.

Penalties are up in the air, but I think Sarabia is the first-choice taker until Hwang returns.

Plus, Sarabia’s attacking data is great, with an npxG+xAG/90 of 0.55. 

Alexis Mac Allister

Mac Allister may not have been the most attractive asset this season until he got a flurry of penalties, but I think he has the potential to get points moving forward too.

His fixtures are great: CRY, eve+ful, his minutes look good, he takes some set pieces, and his npxG+xAG has doubled since DGW 25.

The only downside? He’s ginger.

Oh, and he also may not like to be left Home Alone. It brings out traumatic memories of the time Kevin, his brother, was left behind during a trip to Paris.

Forwards

There are a few obvious ones here:

  • Dominic Solanke
  • Darwin Nunez (if you trust his minutes)
  • And Erling Haaland (mainly for this week)

So, allow me to go slightly rogue:

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

This is it. This is the tip of the iceberg.

If all FPL trolls lived in a happy little kingdom where they’d spend days plotting how best to ruin our FPL hopes and dreams, they’d turn and ask their king for help. 

But their king wouldn’t show up because he probably pulled his hamstring while getting off his royal chair.

Your king, Dominic Calvert-Lewin,.

DCL has fixtures of che, LIV+NFO in his next two gameweeks, and he’s nailed on to start, even if this means he gets ~75 minutes per game.

He’s also on penalties and has a higher npxGI than Phil Foden, Dominic Solanke, and Ivan Toney, all for only £5.2m.

I might buy him next week, and he is a great differential.

Julian Alvarez

I’ll keep it short and sweet: if Haaland doesn’t start this week, selling Haaland to Alvarez is perfectly viable, even if it’s just for this week’s fixture against Luton (H). 

The markets love him, and so do projection models.

He’ll play ~90 and will take most free-kicks and set-pieces, as well as penalties. In this case, he’s arguably prime captaincy material, too.

Longer-Term Horizon

 Some other picks that are good through DGW 37 include:

  • Cole Palmer
  • Heung-min Son
  • Alexander Isak
  • Nicolas Jackson
  • Trent Alexander-Arnold

Captaincy

Mohamed Salah

Look, Crystal Palace are good defensively. In fact, they’re fourth for xGA.

But, I think there’s a lot of noise around this data—a small sample size under their new manager, as well as a home/away discrepancy—so I won’t put much weight into this stat.

But what I will put weight on is Salah’s data. His npxG+xAG/90 is 0.97, and Liverpool are a consistently good attack.

The markets think he’ll do well this week too, and if you believe otherwise, you’re just in De-Nile.

Erling Haaland

If you think Haaland gets anything over 75 minutes, he’s the best captain this week.

Luton Town have the worst defence in the league (and an airport that’s just as bad to match), while Erling Haaland has the highest xG in the league.

So with some simple math, that basically = goals.

But only if you think he plays more than 75 minutes. Otherwise, he may well just be another Norwegian salmon farmer.

Does anyone know if he does sushi?

Alternatives

  • Julian Alvarez, if Haaland doesn’t start,
  • And Ivan Toney.

FPL Challenge

This week’s challenge is more violent than salt-flavoured crackers, topped with salt and with a side of salt.

Every yellow card is worth -5 points, and every red card is worth -8.

So I’d treat this week as a normal free-hit and wouldn’t worry about bookings.

  • I’d go against Erling Haaland this week.
  • Have quadruple Brentford/Liverpool/City defence.
  • And consider players like Mbeumo and Doku.

Essentially, pick two teams you think will win, and bet against every other team.

As always, I’d like to end with a story. I met Ederson (you know, City’s goalkeeper) this week.

And I really needed him to start last week. So I walked up to him and pleaded for a start.

He simply turned to his side, showing me his smiley face tattoo, which seemed to be laughing at me as if it were saying, “Haha, you’re getting a red arrow this week.” 

But he sat me down and explained why he wouldn’t start. 

“I’m a part of the Lazy Revolution.” 

And you should be too.

Subscribe to the free LazyFPL newsletter and join 50,000 on their quest for a green arrow.

Adi Jalan
Written By Adi Jalan

Linking tactics to FPL since 2021. A Brighton predictor with a vendetta against De Zerbi’s rotation.

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