Well, hello there, folks. It’s time to talk about everything you need to know ahead of Gameweek 29.
But for a good majority of you, you’re using your Free Hit chip this week!
Exciting times, aren’t they? You can finally remove that pesky player who’s been blanking every week and get a whole new bunch of players! Wait, what do you mean you’re still going to have Alfie Doughty in your team?
Before we start, I urge you to subscribe to the free LazyFPL newsletter, which concisely (and humorously) tells you everything you need to know before each FPL deadline. Winning more by doing less has never been easier.
Blank Gameweek 29
Only eight teams have a fixture this gameweek. At least this means that Sheffield United fans can enjoy a weekend without it being ruined by the sound of the opposition scoring. Scoring their third goal by the tenth minute, that is.
This week, for your viewing pleasure:
- West Ham vs. Aston Villa
- Burnley vs. Brentford
- Fulham vs. Spurs
- Luton vs. Forest
My Free Hit Draft
If your eyes haven’t been blinded by my questionable love for light mode and poor screenshotting skills, this is where I’m at right now.
Some players are more locked than others, and some are injury-dependent, but I expect the core of the team to largely remain the same.
But, the core of my team includes:
Flekken, Sels
Porro, Reguilon, Doughty, Neco Williams
Maddison, Son, Bowen, Gibbs-White
Toney, Watkins
Goalkeepers
Flekken, Sels, and Martinez
I don’t think there’s much between any of the goalkeepers this week, and each of them has roughly similar clean sheet odds.
Brentford’s is the highest though, at 29%, and Flekken is also my top goalkeeper pick for this week.
Burnley’s attack is staler than the pack of biscuits I opened four months ago and subsequently forgot about (much like Pochettino’s relationship with Madueke), and Brentford allow a decent quantity of low xG chances, which are ideal for save points.
Martinez vs. Sels is much closer; however, I don’t necessarily like Villa’s chances this week given McGinn’s suspension and Kamara’s injury.
So, unless you’re a masochistic Frenchman, I’d pick Sels. Or, you know, just let Martinez let you relive your World Cup final pain again.
Defenders
Pedro Porro and Reguilon/Roerslev/Collins
I think the above are non-negotiables for a Free Hit draft. I’d include Udogie and/or Romero in this list, but I like double Spurs attack and prefer Porro to the others.
Porro’s npxG+xAG/90 is 0.34, and he often finds himself in positions that an advanced 8 would take.
Yes, he’s lost some of his points potential by losing set-pieces, but he plays a Fulham side that are 14th for xG.
Out of the Brentford defenders, Reguilon is easily my favourite, assuming he’s fit. He essentially plays like a left-winger and gets higher up the pitch than Snoop Dogg does on weekends.
His npxG+xAG/90 is also a lively 0.28, and he’ll take some set pieces against a Burnley who cannot defend one to save their lives.
Sean Dyche would be embarrassed, lads.
If he’s not fit, I’d go for Roerslev.
Alfie Doughty
You can pick anyone from any team, and have them in your team for just one week. And I suggest Alfie Doughty?
I should be paraded around town with a sign that says “SHAME!” hanging around my neck. And that must be how everyone who goes to Luton City Airport feels.
Given that we don’t expect many clean sheets, you may as well consider a very attacking wingback who takes all set pieces for quite a physical side.
Doughty already has 8 G+A in the league this season and does somewhat benefit from Nottingham Forest’s positional weakness. Well, given that they concede chances from everywhere, who doesn’t?
Other options include Neco Williams and Konsa, but I much prefer the picks I mentioned above.
Midfielders
Son, Maddison, and Bowen
I think the three of them are non-negotiables for any Free Hitters.
Son’s npxG+xAG/90 is 0.66, which he consistently overperforms with his 22 goal contributions in 24 starts.
Maddison’s is 0.51, and he’s more creative than an artist who realises that their paintings will not keep them from starving, and Bowen may well start as a 9, making him West Ham’s talisman.
I wouldn’t overthink this. Just lock them in already.
Paqueta or Kudus
Someone stop me before I make a bad Kudus (Kudos) to you joke. Eh, it’s fine; I’ll Paquetin, instead.
I prefer Paqueta for his superior underlying data and the possibility that he takes penalties, but there isn’t much between the two at all.
Gibbs-White or Elanga
Similar to Paqueta/Kudus, I prefer Gibbs-White for some set-pieces, minutes, and the possibility of penalties. Elanga is a fun punt, though, and given that Nuno said that benching Elanga last gameweek didn’t work out, I think his minutes could be pretty decent.
Forest aren’t in a great spot right now (no, this isn’t a deforestation quip), and I don’t think fans would be happy seeing a passive team. And Elanga is the opposite of passive.
Leon Bailey
I think he’s my least favourite option of the above, but he’s still a pretty viable option. His underlying data is ridiculous, and his name is reminiscent of what owners can turn to if he blanks.
He benefits the most from West Ham’s positional weaknesses and should see good minutes.
You’ve all heard of the song “Lean On” right? A-A-All we need is somebody to lean on? Well, may I present to you:
A-A-All we need is somebody to Leon!
Even I cringed at that.
Forwards
Watkins, Toney and Morris
I think Toney should be a lock in your team. He’s Brentford’s talisman, who’s nailed on for 90 and will take penalties and some direct free-kicks.
Not to mention, he’s a big threat from set pieces, which is something Burnley are incapable of defending.
Yes, he’s not scored many goals recently, but his fixtures were extremely tough, having faced: Arsenal (A), Chelsea (H), City (A), Liverpool (H), and City (H) in their last seven.
If we get no news on Watkins’ fitness, I think it’s worth having him in your team. I think he’ll either start or miss out on the squad entirely, meaning there’s no downside to having him in your team.
If we know he’s fit, he should be a lock in your side.
Carlton Morris is deserving of your third forward spot, should you decide to go there. Nailed on, talismanic, on penalties, and he has a pretty good fixture. What’s not to like? Well, aside from Luton’s airport, that is.
Chris Wood or Taiwo Awoniyi
If you have any strong inclinations towards either of them starting (I think Wood is likelier to start), I’d consider picking one of the two, perhaps over Carlton Morris, should you want a bite of the free risk pudding.
Err, I must interject. It’s all gone horribly wrong. Why did no one tell me that running around, screaming, “I may get Wood! Who else wants to join me on my Wood?” was a bad idea?!
Arise, Wood. Or, you know, some other non vulgar way to say that Chris Wood is a decent option.
David Datro Fofana or Muniz
If the above players didn’t catch your fancy, D. Fofana and Muniz are also good alternatives.
I wouldn’t worry too much about Muniz starting, as, if you’d seen the Broja loan-clause rules, Broja would need to start every game to not trigger the £4m clause. Which Broja will not do.
And D. Fofana has been incredibly lively whenever he’s been on the pitch. Ironically, this is the opposite of Chelsea, where he’s still contracted to. Just like half the players on this planet.
Captaincy
Heung-min Son
I really wouldn’t overthink this. Heung-min Son is, in my opinion, the best captaincy pick this week by a mile. He’ll play as the 9, take penalties, and continue to make a mockery of xG while facing a Fulham side that wishes xGA wasn’t a thing.
In other words, captain Son if you like points.
Ivan Toney
I don’t mind Toney as a punt this week, should you wish to go there. It’s not exactly free risk, given that it involves plenty of risk, but he’s a great captaincy option this week for the same reasons he should be in your side on a Free Hit.
I prefer Son, but I don’t mind Ivan.
Advice for non-Free Hitters
Players to Buy: Toney, Watkins (if fit), Son, Maddison, Porro, and Udogie.
If you still have it left, I like the Free Hit chip for GW 34, especially if you have your Bench Boost left for GW 37.
If you don’t have your Bench Boost left, I’d wait and see how DGW 34’s fixtures develop before committing to anything.
And don’t overdo the hits; you don’t need 11 players this week, as a hit (-4) exceeds the EV of most players.
As always, I’d like to end with a story. A story of my clueless friend who spunked their Free Hit chip and now only has 4 players this gameweek. Well, 3, because I don’t count Charlie Taylor as one.
He came to me, begging for help. I smiled, and I told him only seven words. Seven words that got him the help he needed, and changed his life.
“I’m a part of the Lazy Revolution.”
And you should be too.
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