Ahh, (gameweek) 21. The age of adulthood for so many countries. Unless you’re Luke Littler (darts, anyone?), in which case you’re too young to be 21.
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Who to Buy in FPL Gameweek 21?
Think back to three months ago. The entire FPL sphere whipped out their pitchforks, knives, and tears of a red arrow and poured them towards insulting Gabriel.
He returned the favour by… getting benched again.
But his xMins aren’t a worry anymore. Kiwior used to be a threat, but all he’s a threat to now is the well-being of farmers market enthusiasts.
His attacking threat is negligible, but Arsenal are still statistically the league’s best defence, and by some margin. His fixtures include CRY, nfo, LIV, whu, bur, NEW in the next six, and somewhere between three and four clean sheets won’t surprise me.
My friend Jim has a Grandma Lottie. Since she has weak knees, she asked him to buy her a walker. So, of course, Jim bought her a walker.
“No, you babbling buffoon, I meant Kyle Walker!” yelled Grandma Lottie.
Grandma Lottie is a smart woman, the type to know why Kyle Walker is a good pick because she’s subscribed to LazyFPL; he plays for the second-best defence in the league and is likely to have a double-gameweek in GW 25.
His fixtures would be: new, BUR, bre, EVE, CHE + BRE, bou and his minutes look to be secure.
In fact, he’s started every Premier League game possible and even got some rest vs. SHU. Someone has to hold the width down the right, don’t they?
Be like Grandma Lottie.
Where Twitter may make you think Bukayo Saka is a sell, he is anything but. In fact, he’s one of the best players to buy for a six-gameweek horizon.
His npxG+xAG/90 is actually the highest it’s ever been, at 0.58/90, and Arsenal have favourable fixtures coming up. He’s nailed on to start, should get at least 85 minutes every gameweek, and is more likely to take penalties than not.
If you still don’t want to buy Saka (why?!), consider Ødegaard. He’s not too far off Saka, although his underlyings don’t necessarily inspire confidence. That said, he’s a bonus points magnet, so even an assist would mean he could quite easily get 1-2 bonus.
Unless your team name is “Icelandic Hotel: Now Open,” Foden is a great pick. When he plays as a midfielder, he is simply *chefs kiss.*
His npxG+AG/90 is 0.50, and honestly, his minutes should be good. Pep Guardiola has said that we may see a Foden-KDB midfield pairing, and if we do, it’ll be in easier games. We know what this means, don’t we?
Goals. And plenty.
Much like a forgotten member of your family who’s forgotten the annual reunion (what kins?!) Ollie Watkins is a pain to own and a pain to not own.
But it seems like he’ll be less of a pain to own now. Aston Villa have fixtures of eve, NEW, shu, MUN, ful, NFO and FPL Review’s Massive Data model predicts him to be the second highest scoring forward over the next six.
Why? If you see his nailed-on 90-minute nature combined with his npxG+xAG of 0.67/90, the picture becomes clearer. He’s a set-and-forget pick at £8.9m, and is the talisman of a team that the markets think will be a Champions League side next season.
Good Ebening to you too.
Okay, hear me out. João Pedro has done irreversible things to my FPL team with his numerous benchings. But I have reasons to believe that his minutes should be secure. More than they were at the start of last season, at least.
In fact, look at what De Zerbi said (via The Argus): “He is improving. I would like him to start the game at the beginning, not in the second half or after 20 minutes.”
He has an npxG+xAG of 0.50, but he takes penalties, taking his xG+xAG/90 to 0.75. And this is only in the league; he has dominated in Europe.
Rumour has it that half the seagulls in Brighton are now named João. Parents are naming their newborns João. Italians used to say “Ciao bella” when they said goodbye to a beautiful person, and now they say “João, Bella.”
His points will be beautiful.
Who To Captain in FPL Gameweek 21?
Captaincy this week is spread farther out than the goals Darwin Nunez seems to miss every week. I have never seen more wasted xG since… Wait, Timo Werner’s back in the Premier League?
FPL Review’s massive data model has Bukayo Saka as the top-point scorer this week, and for good reason.
He faces a dilapidated Crystal Palace side that will sit back, giving Arsenal plenty of possession.
Arsenal are fifth for xG across the season, but the markets predict them to score two goals vs. Palace. Palace’s defence is about midtable, but Roy Hodgson’s aura can only last so long.
He’s my top captain pick this week as well.
In case you want a captain that plays closer to the deadline, Cole Palmer’s npxG+xAG is 0.72/90, and for everyone’s qualms about Chelsea’s attack, their underlyings are actually pretty good.
Wait, they’re second for xG over the season? Sure, Chelsea haven’t been great, but that is not indicative of Cole Palmer.
Furthermore, Fulham’s xGA away from home leaves them 18th on the Premier League table. Away from home, they’ve even conceded the third-most goals in the league.
He’s the second-best captain this week, in mu opinion.
Alternatives to Saka and Palmer would include Richarlison, Julian Alvarez, and Ollie Watkins. Don’t shoot the messenger, eh?
Who to Sell in FPL Gameweek 21?
Salah: As long as you have a plan to get Salah in near a possible DGW 25, Salah’s funds can be allocated towards the rest of your team. Salah returning by GW 24 is quite likely.
Son: I’d prioritise selling Son over Salah if you were to only sell one, as you’re more likely to want Salah back before Son.
Trent Alexander-Arnold: TAA is more of a luxury sell; Salah and Son should take precedence. Pepijn Linders said he’d be back in three weeks, which would mean a potential GW 22/23 return, but you may have to sell him around GW 24 to facilitate getting Salah back in any way.
As always, I’d like to end with a story. You see, I got quite bored during the break from FPL. So I DM’d Darwin Nunez, asking whether he’d ever overperform his xG.
“No,” he said. Why, you may ask? He simply sent a winking emoji and said, “I’m a part of the Lazy Revolution.”
And you should be too. Join over 48,000 FPL managers and sign up for the LazyFPL newsletter.
Otherwise, the Darwin, Darwin Nunez song will haunt you in your nightmares.