Before I tell you everything you need to know ahead of the GW 16 deadline, let’s get in the festive mood, shall we?
Last Christmas, I gave you my (FPL) draft
But the very next day you gave me a red (arrow)
This year, to save me from tears
I’ll quit playing instead
But before I help you avoid that pesky red arrow, consider subscribing to the (free) LazyFPL newsletter. It only takes a few minutes to read and covers everything you need to know. Rumour has it that Santa carries around free subscriptions to give away for Christmas.
Who to Buy in FPL Gameweek 16?
Pedro Porro
The FPL sphere has quite a bad relationship with “Pedro’s”—Joao Pedro, Pedro Neto. Where Pedro’s been the harbinger of a red arrow, Pedro Porro is here to change that.
His npxG+xAG is 0.35/90, and this is only boosted by the fact that he’s taking all of Tottenham’s set pieces following Maddison’s injury.
Factor in the fact that he’s playing for a very attacking Spurs side and often finds himself in positions an advanced 8 would take, and you just know those attacking returns are coming.
He comes in at £5.3m and although his fixtures are a missed bag, Spurs are yet to not score a goal in any Premier League game this year. Spurs’ defence isn’t the best; they’re eleventh for xGA, but Romero returns this week, which will boost their clean sheet prospects.
Moreover, his last name is quite literally “Sauceda.” The spiciest of the spicy picks.
Levi Colwill
The fixture schedule is very congested right now, meaning we want our players to play as much as possible. Rumour has it, Pochettino was singing “American Pie,” although the lyrics were slightly different from the original: “Drove my Chevy to The Levi, but the points were ripe.”
If Levi Colwill’s mileage is anywhere near the Chevy’s, we’re feasting.
His fixtures until between GW 16 and GW 21 are: – eve, SHU, wol, CRY, lut, FUL.You can’t ask for much better. Chelsea’s defence hasn’t been good these last few weeks, but it’s (at least somewhat) understandable when you account for the difficulty of those fixtures.
His minutes security is questionable, but personally, I’m quite optimistic about starts. I won;t say he’s nailed, but he’s certainly better than a lot of the alternatives in the £4.5m price range and will get minutes at LB with the possibility of some at LCB.
Douglas Luiz
Okay, hear me out on this. DM’s aren’t exactly the love child of the FPL community, but this one is nailed on and takes penalties.
His underlyings are poor, but he isn’t the worst player to own if you have good bench depth, especially considering the fact that he plays Sheffield United at home during blank gameweek 18.
I prefer Palmer, Gordon, and Hwang Hee-chan (4 yellow cards alert) in the £5.0 – 6.0m MID range, but Luiz is worth a look at, at the very least.
Jarrod Bowen
Discarded faster than Areola discards the possibility of a clean sheet, Jarrod Bowen still remains a decent option.
His fixtures are certainly a mixed bag—ful, WOL, MUN, ars, BHA, shu—but he is a talismanic figure for West Ham and has an npxG+xAG of 0.53/90. He’s slightly pricier than the alternatives, coming in at £7.6m, but if you want a differential, you should be gowen (going) for Bowen.
Raheem Sterling
Before I make jokes about Sterling’s name and general inflation, it’s worth mentioning that Raheem Sterling is on four yellow cards, meaning he’s close to a suspension.
His fixtures are incredible—eve, SHU, wol, CRY, lut, FUL ful—and he’s nailed on. He won’t be taking penalties, but his npxG+xAG is 0.41/90, which is quite average (like most things at Chelsea). Historically, he’s averaged an npxG+xAG of 0.69/90, and while he won’t reach this while supplying Nicholas Jackson’s incredible misses, an uptake is reasonable to expect.
In fact, I don’t mind a double up with Cole Palmer.
Let’s warm up with some chants, shall we?
Chelsea! Chelsea! Chelsea! Wait, what do you mean they have only one chant?
Ollie Watkins
I apologise for any PTSD, Darwin Nũńez owners. Ollie Watkins is a great asset to buy and is arguably the best captaincy option in GW 18, where he faces Sheffield United at home.
The one player for whom losing penalties is actually a benefit, based on default minutes, Ollie Watkins, is predicted to get the third most points in the next six GWs based on FPL Review’s Masive Data model.
His npxG+xAG is sky high (just like the amount of chances Darwin Nũńez misses), at 0.75/90. Villa are very good, especially at home, and even the markets believe they’re in the top 4 race.
Rumour has it that David Villa, is simply an older Ollie Watkins who grew up wishing to play for Aston Villa. Wait, they’re based in Birmingham? Never mind, he must’ve misread a map.
Other FPL Picks
From last week’s article, Martin Dúbravka, Phil Foden, Dominik Solanke, Anthony Gordon, and Cole Palmer are still great buys.
Who To Captain in FPL Gameweek 16?
Captaincy this week is like choosing between adopting a dog or a cat. We all know that the dog is so much better, but your pesky sibling is allergic to dogs, so you settle for the cat instead.
Or, in FPL terms, you can’t afford Haaland, so you’re on no Haaland.
Haaland
If you have Haaland this week, I wouldn’t overthink it.
All models have Haaland as the optimal captain, and he plays Luton Town, who have statistically the second worst defence in the league.
Yes, City haven’t been good, and Luton have been decent, especially at home, but especially when there are no alternatives, it makes sense to go for a man with an npxG+xAG of 1.03/90.
He can kick a football quite well, If I’m being honest.
Salah
Salah’s fixture isn’t bad by any means; in fact, all the injuries to Palace make it somewhat favourable. Furthermore, Tyrick Mitchell is not fit to start vs. Liverpool, meaning Palace, who are already weak down their left flank, are further weakened.
His npxG+xAG/90 is coincidentally the same number as the age of Roy Hodgson: 90 (0.90), and he’s nailed and on penalties.
Verdict
If you have Haaland captain him, and if you have Salah and no Haaland, captain Salah.
And if you have neither, you may as well captain Areola and get the pain over with.
Or Alvarez/Foden.
Who To Sell in FPL Gamweeek 16?
Mbeumo: He is expected to be out for a few weeks and then he’ll go to AFCON.
Areola: Only if you don’t have an alternative option on the bench.
Cash: Not necessarily a priority, but his xMins aren’t as secure as they once were.
As always, I’d like to end with a story. It’s sort of embarrassing, actually. I have Jordan Pickford in my team, you see, and he’s gotten me back-to-back clean sheets. As luck has it, I met him on my morning walk.
And I was so excited to see him and to tell him about his seven pointers. As I chased behind him to tell him about it, I stopped midway through and thought to myself, “is this really worth it? All this running?”
No, it isn’t.
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Or else Jordan Pickford is going to yell at you with his dinosaur arms.
