There are seven FPL deadlines in the month of December. So before we get into all you need to know ahead of GW 14, let’s start with a Christmas song to get into the festive mood, shall we?
On the first day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
A red arrow in a pear tree
On the second day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
Two penalty donations and a red arrow in a pear tree
To see what days three through twelve include, you’ll just have to read on. And if you don’t want that neatly packaged red arrow, you’d better subscribe to the (free) LazyFPL newsletter. You’ll get all the relevant FPL information delivered straight to your inbox, 24 hours before the deadline. It’s truly a gift from Santa.
Who to Buy in FPL Gameweek 14?
Trent Alexander-Arnold
During the festive period, there’s naturally a lot of pressure on the service industry. Demand is high, after all. Hence, the demand for Trent Alexander-Arnold is equally high – someone has to create those high xG chances for Darwin Nunez to miss.
TAA is pricey, coming in at £7.9m, but his fixtures include FUL, shu, cry, bur in the next 6. Those are good fixtures defensively, especially when you see that Liverpool are fourth for xGA over the season, meaning they are a particularly good defence. His attacking data is lower than in previous seasons, with an npxG+xAG of 0.30/90, but when combined with his high propensity for bonus points, you have an easy route to points.
The cheaper alternative is Kostas Tsimikas, a scouser who’s been gaslit into thinking he’s Greek, but I expect him to miss one of the next 3 due to rotation.
On the third day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
Three assists, two penalty donations, and a red arrow in a pear tree
Ethan Pinnock
I should caveat this pick by saying Brentford blank in GW 18, meaning it only makes sense to buy Pinnock if you have bench depth. What is a blank gameweek? Just think of it as a regular gameweek for Areola, and you’ll get the gist of things.
Between GW 14-19, Pinnock faces LUT, shu, and WOL, coming in at only £4.6m. Brentford are also statistically the seventh-best defence in the Premier League, defending in a very compact and physical low block that teams find hard to break down.
Pinnock also has a big head, meaning he is an attacking threat from corners.
Gabriel and/or Saliba are brilliant options as well. If you have the money, I’d prioritise them over Pinnock. Arsenal are statistically the best defence in the league.
Chelsea defenders would be a neat alternative, with Reece James being the safest for minutes once he returns from suspension (in James lingo, a mini-recovery from yet another injury). Colwill could be a good option at £4.5m but his lack of minutes security makes him a wait and watch.
On the fourth day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
Four returns, three assists, two penalty donations, and a red arrow in a pear tree
As far as midfielders go, Mbeumo is the obvious pick. But since his merits are already a known quantity, I will talk about three cheaper midfielders instead.
Cole Palmer
Coal is usually associated with dark, cold times, something that is quite apt for the Chelsea of today. Chelsea could do with some coal, actually, they need a bright spark, but instead they have a Cole. And Cole is quite good.
Before I see any allegations of him being a “penalty merchant,” his npxG+xAG stands at a whopping 0.64/90. For context, this is more than Bowen, Saka, Jesus, and Alvarez. Of course, we have to factor in a small sample size, but even the self-proclaimed “eye-test experts” on Twitter cannot deny he’s played well.
He faces Brighton in GW 14 this week, and the markets project Chelsea to score 2+ goals after the first time in aeons, and between GWs 16-19 he faces eve, SHU, wol, CRY. He may not have scored an open-play goal yet, but it’ll come. And soon.
Anthony Gordon
Anthony Gordon is what non-Cole Palmer owners think Cole Palmer should be. He scored 13 points in GW 13, and the sixth-most points out of all midfielders over the season. His npxG+xAG stands at 0.50/90, and his minutes should be relatively secure (but not nailed by any means), including some minutes as a 9 when Alexander Isak needs a rest.
On the fifth day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
£5m (Five) midfielders, four returns, three assists, two penalty donations, and a red arrow in a pear tree
Hwang Hee-chan
If Anthony Gordon is what is expected of Cole Palmer, Hwang is Son 2.0. Remember, guys, Son’s blanked in his last three, whereas Hwang has 14 in the same period! Seriously, though, Hwang is a great option, especially if he takes penalties. I don’t think he’s 100% on them (Cunha is still a threat) but he’s played over 85 minutes in all of his last seven games, vital during this busy period.
His underlying data is good, and he has some good fixtures in there. I prefer Cole Palmer, but the Midlands Son isn’t a bad asset by any means.
Okay, we’re into spicy territory now. And I need to get this out of the way, so you get two Christmas lyrics here.
On the sixth day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
Six missed open goals, £5m (five) midfielders, four returns, three assists, two penalty donations, and a red arrow in a pear tree
If you haven’t guessed it already, we’re into Darwin Núñez territory now.
Darwin Núñez
Seeing that Watkins wasn’t in the squad for Villa’s game vs. Legia Warszawa, people discarded him faster than… well faster than Darwin Núñez misses chances. A rest midweek bodes well for Núñez though, as it means a start vs. Fulham (H) is very likely.
He could get a rest somewhere in the next three, but I have reason to believe he is first-choice, and Jota’s injury boosts his xMins. His npxG+xAG is 0.97/90 and he is one of the highest upside picks in the game. When he scores, if you don’t blare the “Darwin, Darwin Núñez song” out of the nearest loudspeaker, I’ll be disappointed.
And as for the second Christman lyric?
On the seventh day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
Seven fresh IKEA meatballs, six missed open goals, £5m (five) midfielders, four returns, three assists, two penalty donations, and a red arrow in a pear tree
Alexander Isak
Hallå, Alexander Isak. Callum Wilson’s injury woes mean he’s Newcastle’s only fit no. 9, outside of the possibility that Anthony Gordon gets minutes there. If his minutes are secure, he’s up there as one of the best assets in the game, especially as he takes penalties. His fixtures include MUN, eve, tot, FUL, lut, NFO and even with a steep minutes decay, FPL Review’s massive data model has him in the top 10 predicted points scorers for a 6 gameweek horizon.
Buy him and enjoy the points, ja?
Who To Captain in FPL Gameweek 14?
You’re really going to make me choose between Salah and Haaland aren’t you?
On default minutes, FPL Review has Haaland at an EV (expected points) of 7.6, and Salah at 7.3. Most models favour Haaland, but when they do, Salah is close behind.
Haaland faces Spurs. Actually, they warrant their own lyric:
On the eighth day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
Eight full-backs, seven fresh IKEA meatballs, six missed open goals, £5m (five) midfielders, four returns, three assists, two penalty donations, and a red arrow in a pear tree
Spurs’ backline vs. Villa had Ben Davies and Emerson Royal as CBs and yet they pushed a very high line. City will create enough chances for the second best Scandinavian striker to get on (after Teemu Pukki and his past FPL heroics, of course) which bodes well for a haul.
Haaland’s haul potential has been well documented, but something that hasn’t been spoken about enough is the fact that Bissouma is returning from suspension. He’s vital to how Tottenham plays and will give them some key defensive stability. It’s not likely to make a huge difference, but it should be enough to be noticeable.
Palhinha is available to play vs. Liverpool after serving his suspension, much to the benefit of Fulham’s defence. For all his ball-winning capabilities, I don’t think this will make too much of a difference, but is once again worth nothing. Salah is a brilliant captaincy option this week, and I feel like he’s gone under the radar due to the narratives that have been created around Haaland.
If I had to rank them, I’d say Haaland is better than Salah. It’s not by much though, and I could see myself captaining either of them. I think Spurs will do better than what people expect though, so if your reasoning for captaining Haaland is solely due to Spurs’ injury woes, I’d consider Salah.
If you’re simply too indecisive, consider Bryan Mbeumo.
On the ninth day of Christmas, my true love sent to me
Nine wrong captaincy choices, eight full-backs, seven fresh IKEA meatballs, six missed open goals, £5m (five) midfielders, four returns, three assists, two penalty donations, and a red arrow in a pear tree
Who To Sell in FPL Gameweek 14?
The Polish Cafu (Matty Cash) is now a slight minutes risk, and is close to a suspension following an accumulation of yellow cards.
If Jarrod Bowen is not available for the game vs. Crystal Palace (he was unavailable midweek), I’d consider selling him too, either to the names mentioned in the “Players to buy” section, or to someone like Bukayo Saka.
If Ollie Watkins is not available to play Bournemouth (A), I’d consider selling him for Isak or Núñez. If he’s fit, I’d keep him.
If you’re looking for the last three lyrics, you’re unfortunately going to have to wait for next week. This is definitely to keep you wanting, not because my creativity, like Sheffield United’s, is running low.
But as always, I’d like to end with an analogy. I went to the mall this weekend, where I met a particularly jolly Santa. Now, it turns out that this man was a shoplifter posing as Santa so he could get out of the mall without suspicion. After learning about this, I started chasing him.
After two minutes of a brisk walk (no running in the mall) I stopped. “What’s the point of this exercise?” I should join the Lazy Revolution instead. And you should too. Join 45,000+ FPL managers and sign up to the LazyFPL newsletter. Fake Santa may have stolen a lot, but he can’t take away your green arrows.
Data from fbref
