The international break lasted for two weeks. That’s 336 hours without pain and without losing out on any points.
Unless you’re an Everton fan, in which case I’m not sorry for you; you made your own boat. What were you thinking?!
Now that I’ve gotten that out of the way, let’s look ahead to Gameweek 13. An unlucky number for some, but I have all the information you need to get a green arrow.
But wait – we have 8 gameweeks in 42 days. That means a lot of research. But fear not, as LazyFPL will do your work for you. Subscribe to the LazyFPL Newsletter to get all the optimal FPL information delivered straight to your inbox 24 hours before each deadline. Sweet isn’t it? A peace offering for all the Everton fans I’ve upset, perhaps.
Who to Buy in FPL Gameweek 13
For the purpose of this section, we will consider a six-game-week horizon, from GW 13–18.
Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee, and miss 0.9xG chances. It’s just a regular day for the Bees’ talisman, Bryan Mbeumo.
He’s Twitter’s new darling boy, with Jarrod Bowen being discarded faster than a day-old Thanksgiving turkey. And all because there was fluid in his knees? Come on, guys. Playing with Michail Antonio would make anyone wet.
There’s a good reason for the Mbeumo hype, though. He’s nailed on for 90, will play as a striker in the harder games, and is on penalties. His npxG+xAG is 0.68/90, which is actually an UNDERperformance of 0.18/90. Hauls have come, and hauls will come. There’s no need to be edgy; Mbeumo is a good pick, with fixtures consisting of ARS, LUT, bha, shu, AVL, blank.
Brennan Johnson. Sure, his initials cannot be stitched onto his t-shirt for “censorship reasons,” but don’t let the sloppiness put you off. He’s a £5.8m MID who’s been playing on the left wing for Tottenham following the downfall of a pigeon.
Spurs’ fixtures are a mixed bag, given that they play MCI and NEW in this run, but Johnson has looked very lively in the limited minutes he’s gotten. In fact, his npxG+xAG is at 0.79/90. For context, that’s the xG equivalent of one penalty per game.
His ownership is at a meagre 0.4%, meaning there are serious differential points to be had. His middle name is Price, and that’s what you will pay if you do not get him in.
I’m not going to bore you with those Eze-easy puns. They make me (ebe)retch-y. Too much? Too much. Eberechi Eze is the definition of a talisman. Everything Crystal Palace does comes through him. Granted, they don’t do much, but Eze has still maintained a npxG+xAG of 0.51/90, is nailed, and is on penalties.
He’s an excellent pick for the next three, where he faces lut, whu, BOU, and could then easily become Cole Palmer (£5.2m MID) for eve, SHU, wol. Doing so would have your asset play the four worst defences in the Premier League based on xGA data. Eze points.
Who to Captain in FPL Gameweek 13?
Daughter’s Day was celebrated on the 22nd of September. Google says Son’s Day is on the 4th of March, but Google is wrong. Son’s Day is on the 26th of November. Against a fitter, more “Good Ebening” version of the Peaky Blinders.
Son plays Aston Villa’s high line, is nailed on to start, and is very likely to take penalties in the absence of Maddison. Have I mentioned that Villa are atrocious away from home? In fact, they’ve conceded an average of 2 goals per game away from home. Some places are fortresses, while Aston just settles for a Villa.
Postecoglou is so attacking-minded that I think the loss of Maddison and van de Ven will not be all-consuming. Their stats vs. Wolves (0.7xG) do not make for pretty viewing, but the impact of Udogie mustn’t be understated.
Okay, I need you to hear me out on this. I’m not crazy, but… Dominic Solanke. Think about it: he played Sheffield United away (who’ve conceded 16 in six home games), and when he scores his hattrick, the ladies will go hanky-panky for Dominic Solanke.
He’s another one of your nailed-on, 90-minute men who takes penalties. His npxG+xAG of 0.54/90 is higher than Alvarez, Saka, Rashford, Neto, and Ferguson, and he’s scored 10/11 of his career penalties. On default minutes, FPL Review has him at an EV (expected points) of 4.9, which is the third highest out of all players.
Do I even have to talk about Erling Braut Haaland? The pride of Leeds is fresh off a break after leaving the Norway squad early and is set to face a high-flying Liverpool side. City’s xG has been quite dismal at home, even lower than Wolves, Bournemouth, and West Ham, but these are the matches that Haaland thrives in.
City will exert less control than if it were away, and he will have plenty of transitions and chaos to thrive in. Haaland has averaged 11.33 points against the “big six” this season, including 4 goals and 2 assists in 3 games.
Who to Sell in FPL Gameweek 13
This section will contain the caveat of waiting until press conferences. Patience is key. Until patience blanks, in which case patience is a transfer out.
Assuming Bowen is not fit, Mbeumo, Palmer, Eze, and Johnson are potential replacements, in that order. The same can be said for Kaoru Mitoma, but he has recently been pictured in training. This may not be representative, however, as the game vs. Athens midweek takes precedence.
Matty Cash is a possible sell as well. George Baldock (£3.8m) is a good option to free up funds, otherwise Gabriel and Saliba (ARS) are great options. Trent Alexander Arnold is more expensive at 7.9m, but he is an option for those of you without Salah.
Gameweek 13 is a weird one. Most of the good teams have tough fixtures, and naturally, the clean sheet odds are low. In fact, FPL Review has Arsenal on top, with only 37%. Most people aren’t making transfers either, unless it’s injury enforced. We can’t always have the perfect team, and this is the week to remember that.
As always, I’d like to end with an analogy. I was invited to a race this weekend. And I was confident. I was going to win. It wasn’t going to be easy—I was up against a particularly feral seven-year-old. But I set off. Midway through the race, I stopped. “Why am I running?” I should join the Lazy Revolution instead. And you should, too. Join 45,000+ FPL managers and sign up to the LazyFPL newsletter. That seven-year-old may have beaten me, but only one of us is getting a green arrow this week. Take that, John.
Data from fbref