I woke up feeling optimistic today. In fact, I walked to work singing “All I Want for Christmas Is You” while envisioning a green arrow. Instead, I’ve gotten six red arrows in a row.
I blame Bruno Fernandes.
But gameweek 15 will be different, not only because I’ve sold a certain someone (we don’t talk about Bruno, no, no, no!), but because I’m here to tell you all you need to know before the gameweek 15 deadline. Sweet, eh?
To help avoid making your festivities as ho-ho-horrible as mine, I urge you to subscribe to the (free) LazyFPL newsletter. It covers all the relevant FPL information, takes only a few minutes to read, and gets delivered straight to your inbox 24 hours before the FPL deadline. Your friends will be jealous of your green arrows.
Who to Buy in FPL Gameweek 15?
Martin Dúbravka
The love he’s been getting on Twitter is incredible—FPL managers are probably happier to see him than his mother was after giving birth to him! In fact, on the same day that it was announced that Nick Pope would be out for 4-5 months, Martin Dúbravka got a price rise.
The cost of living crisis has really hit us all, hasn’t it?
But where I had doubts about buying Kelleher, I don’t have the same doubts about Martin. He’s nailed to start until GW 19, after which things get murkier. If Newcastle sign a new goalkeeper (there are rumours of De Gea, but I don’t think it’s likely), his minutes and usefulness as an asset fall.
But given the information we have now, we have a £4.0m goalkeeper for the third-best defence in the league. He also plays Luton (A) in BGW 18, where fellow Turner owners (I empathise with your pain) may need him.
I would sell Turner for him, not Areola. You never know when you may have to rotate keepers, and a little bit of depth goes a long way.
But seriously, calm down with the praise. We don’t need a mini Jason Tindall at Newcastle; enough people have superiority complexes.
Phil Foden
I’m philin (feeling) good tonighttttt. Aside from being Phil Foden’s anthem during his exploits in Iceland, that is what owners of Manchester City’s starboy will be feeling in GW 15. The usual worries around Phil Foden are about rotation, and while that concern is still omnipresent, in the manner of Pep’s smooth and shiny head, Phil Foden is almost guaranteed to start in Gameweek 15.
His underlying data is good at an npxG+xAG of 0.45/90; however, it’s worth remembering that Rodri and Grealish are suspended for the trip to Aston Villa, which may adversely affect City’s creativity.
On default minutes and with a steep decay of said minutes, FPL Review’s massive data likes Phil Foden, ranking him ninth out of all players for a six-game-week horizon.
His haircut and its crimes against humanity will be forgiven after his next haul.
Dominik Solanke
It’s important to keep yourself warm during this festive season, and Dominik Solanke will help you with that. Not because of the joy you’ll get because of his points, but because of the anxiety of watching him miss chances. He’s like Darwin Núñez, just more lanky. He’s so lanky.
Seriously though, his fixtures include cry, LUT, nfo, FUL in the next 6, he’s a talismanic figure, and he’ll take penalties. In fact, he’s averaged an npxG+xAG of 0.90/90 over the last four, and he’s actually underperformed his npxG over the season. He’s cheap, only costing £6.5m, and plays for a Bournemouth side that have been steadily improving.
The points will come, and soon.
Semenyo is a good budget enabler from the Cherries, coming in at £4.6m. His minutes security isn’t high, but aside from Cameron Archer’s (which may change after Heckingbottom’s imminent sacking), hardly anyone’s is at that price.
Cole Palmer is still a good buy. He was benched as a precautionary measure following a knock in training and didn’t take the penalty because he wasn’t on the field. No, he wasn’t benched after feeling inferior to Anthony Gordon. Why? Gordon did the points, and Palmer didn’t! Luckily for Palmer owners, past points are not indicative of the future, and his future is filled with points.
Hwang Hee-chan is still a good asset, although it’s worth mentioning that he’s now on four yellow cards.
Núñez is a slight minutes risk this week, but is good for a long horizon. Good for missing high xG chances, that is. Okay, okay, he’s also good for points.
And Trent Alexander-Arnold is still a great asset, although his clean sheet probability may take a tumble with Kelleher’s shenanigans.
Liverpool without Allison is like pizza without pineapple. Incomplete, missing a vital cog, and lost. Only kidding, of course. Liverpool without Allison are much worse off.
Who To Captain in FPL Gameweek 14?
This week’s captaincy is a race between three people; if one of those runners was on steroids, the other was walking briskly, and the third was… me. I present to you, Salah, Haaland, and Son.
Mohamed Salah
If you have the Egyptian King, I wouldn’t overthink this. He plays a dysfunctional Sheffield United side, who are likely to be managerless for this match. A new manager bounce is possible, of course, but that needs a competent team.
Salah has an npxG+xAG of 0.92/90, which is the second highest in the league (out of all players with more than 5 starts), and Sheffield United are rock bottom for xGA and GA, expected to have conceded 30.8, instead conceding 39.
Rumour has it that Paul Heckingbottom’s name was so simply for foresight—the inferior Sheffield are at the (hecking) bottom, after all.
Erling Haaland
Haaland to FPL is what a ham sandwich and water are to a meal deal. It’ll do the job, but it’s just so boring. Unless your name is Simon Hooper, in which case it’s as potent as salmonella.
Haaland’s npxG+xAG is at a whopping 1.06/90, however, this week Manchester City don’t have Rodri. I expect them to beat Aston Villa, but losing out on someone who’s been among your most creative players is far from ideal.
He’s a good captaincy option; there are no two ways about it. But if you’re tired of those boring meal deals, take a look at:
Son Heung-min
Son Heung-min plays against Alphonse Areola. That’s all I have to say. Tempted, now? West Ham have the 6th worst xGA in the league and are facing Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs, who cannot not attack. It’s admirable, honestly.
Son is coming off an… interesting outing vs. City, having scored a goal at both ends as well as grabbing an assist. His npxG+xAG is high, yet Son always manages to outperform it. He’s one of the most consistent overperformers of xG the world has ever seen.
To make matters better for Spurs, Romero returns from suspension. His ball-playing abilities will enable Spurs to push even higher up the field, putting a proportionate amount of pressure on Spurs’ low block, knowing that Romero is there as a sweeper should things go wrong.
The Verdict
Salah is the standout captain, followed by Son and Haaland. That said, the disparity between Salah and Son is far bigger than the disparity between Son and Haaland.
Who To Avoid in FPL Gameweek 15?
Jamaal Lascelles: Sven Botman was reportedly in training on Monday.
Vitaliy Mykolenko: Defensively, Everton are good (7th for xGA), but Mykolenko’s threat has been overstated in recent weeks.
Takehiro Tomiyasu: His minutes are not secure, and neither are Ben White’s.
Simon Adingra: With Brighton’s rotation only increasing, I don’t have much faith in Adingra’s xMins.
Enzo Fernandes: Just no.
As always, I’d like to end with a story. Before Chris Wilder was interviewed for the Sheffield United job, they approached me. In fact, I was given control of one of their training sessions.
So I made them run a few laps around the track. But midway through, Cameron Archer stopped and asked me, “Why are we running?” Then, in unison, they chanted, “We are part of the Lazy Revolution.” And you should join too. Join over 45,000 FPL managers and sign up for the LazyFPL newsletter. Heckingbottom’s been removed from his managerial role; make sure that doesn’t happen to you and your FPL team.
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